Economic Outlook: Near-Term Challenges Shouldn’t Knock Recovery Off-Course
We expect inflation to return to the Fed’s target levels by 2023
Originally written by Preston Caldwell for Morningstar.com
Despite widespread worries about near-term headwinds, including supply chain disruptions and the war in Ukraine, we remain upbeat in our outlook for the U.S. economy. We expect inflation to eventually drop back to normal levels, while economic growth remains strong.
U.S. real gross domestic product growth accelerated to 7.0% (annualized) in fourth-quarter 2021, an increase from the previous quarter. The uptick in growth was attributable mainly to inventory buildups, indicating a partial alleviation of supply chain issues. Ongoing normalization of consumer behavior as omicron fades should support further growth in the near term.
U.S. GDP Growth Accelerated in Fourth-Quarter 2021
Source: Morningstar
High near-term inflation remains a key concern. Consumer Price Index inflation reached 7.9% year over year in February 2022, the highest since the 1980s. Inflation in the next couple of months is unlikely to look better, owing to the surge in oil prices due to the disruption of Russian supply. Nevertheless, we expect oil prices to fall greatly in coming years from today’s elevated levels. Even more important, we expect a significant deflationary impulse as the supply of autos and other durable goods catches up with demand. We project inflation to drop below the Federal Reserve’s 2.0% target by 2023, and average just 2.3% over 2022 to 2025 as whole. This is below consensus, which we think is overreacting to near-term developments.
We Still Expect High Inflation to Be Temporary as Supply Issues Are Resolved
Source: Morningstar
The Fed’s shift to tighter monetary policy bolsters our confidence that high inflation will be tamed. Markets are now pricing in an increase in the federal-funds rate to 2.5% by the end of 2022, a much more aggressive pace of tightening than previously expected. This will come at the cost of slightly slower near-term GDP growth, but we don’t think a recession is on the horizon.
The Fed Is Now Expected to Tighten Very Aggressively in 2022
Source: Morningstar
Underpinned by our supply-side views on the economy, our GDP growth expectations are about 2% cumulatively above consensus. We think ongoing expansion of the labor force will support continued solid growth. While labor markets have shown signs of elevated tightness, we think this reflects the rapid pace of hiring rather than the breaching of maintainable limits in the level of employment. Despite the media frenzy around the concept of a “Great Resignation,” a more accurate characterization would be the “Great Reshuffling.” Workers aren’t leaving the labor market in droves; instead, they’re trading up for better jobs.
We Remain Above Consensus on GDP Growth in the Medium Term
Source: Morningstar
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Gary is a Financial Associate at Gleba & Associates, Inc., joining our team in June 2020. After graduating from Walsh College with a Bachelor’s Degree in Finance in 2013, he began his career at Raymond James Financial Services. He then moved to the world of banking, working as a banker with Chase Private Client and then as an Assistant Vice President, Financial Advisor with PNC Investments. Gary has expertise in all aspects of financial planning including investment management, higher education planning, life insurance, and long-term care insurance needs analysis. When he gets away from the office, he loves to spend time with his wife, Lauren, and two daughters, Hadley and Harper. He enjoys woodworking, boating, summer weekends at the family cottage, spending time outdoors and traveling.
Conor is a Financial Associate at Gleba & Associates, Inc., where he started in 2018. Conor has prior experience in the financial planning industry, as well as in the insurance industry. His high level of understanding insurance and financial products helps him in assessing the needs of our clients. He holds a Bachelor of Science degree in Business Administration with a concentration in Finance from the University of Detroit Mercy. You can often find Conor playing soccer or walking with his two dogs Milo, and Ellie. He is also an avid follower of the Detroit Tigers, Detroit Red Wings and his alma mater, the University of Detroit Mercy Titans.
Lorie Heitzer is our Financial Associate at Gleba & Associates, Inc., where she has been a valuable employee for more than a decade! In her current role, Lorie assists with client reviews, implements client financial planning, and handles preparation of investment paperwork. During her time with Gleba & Associates, Lorie has earned her Series 6 (Investment Company Variable Contracts Representative), 63 (Uniform Securities Agent) and Life Insurance Licenses, allowing her to move into her current role where she assists clients in both of these areas. Lorie and her husband Bill, along with their daughters Lauren and Alexandria, and sons-in-law, Andrew & Joe, enjoy golf and make it a family event whenever possible. Her tenure at Gleba & Associates speaks volumes to her passion for the firm’s family atmosphere and her dedication to our clients and their financial and insurance needs.
Terri is the Service Manager at Gleba & Associates, Inc., Joining the team in April, 2015. In her role, she handles client service requests and underwriting. Terri’s previous experience in 401(k) Retirement Plans, Payroll and Human Resource Administration is invaluable, allowing Gleba & Associates to grow and run efficiently. This is knowledge that can also assist our small business clients as they grow their businesses. Terri enjoys spending time with family, which includes her husband, Gerry and her two children, Vincent and Genna. She loves the outdoors and camping with family in their RV. Terri looks forward to continuing the high level of customer service you have come to expect from Gleba & Associates!
Michael is the Marketing Manager at Gleba & Associates, Inc., where he began in August 2017. In his position, Michael creates and develops marketing strategies to enhance the image of Gleba & Associates, and helps maximize the Client-Advisor relationship. He is also in charge of company events, seminars, and educational workshops. Michael has a Bachelor of Applied Arts Degree in Integrative Public Relations from Central Michigan University. When he is not in the office, Michael can most likely be found playing billiards, playing poker, on the tennis court, or rooting on the Utica Unicorns baseball team. Michael stays active by going to the gym and going to the dog park with his Labrador-mix, Milton. His approachable attitude, along with experience in marketing, communications, and social media, makes him a valuable asset to the Gleba & Associates team.
Moiz is our Financial Associate at Gleba & Associates, Inc., where he began in 2013 after working for Bank of America and Thomson Reuters in various financial roles. In his position, Moiz assists in the research of financial solutions in order to meet client’s needs, conducts client reviews, provides insurance quotes, offers detailed financial plans, and delivers follow-up services to our clients. Before moving to the United States in 2004, Moiz grew up in rural India, where he was raised in a family of entrepreneurs. This allowed him to quickly learn the value of financial investment. Moiz holds a Bachelor of Commerce Degree in Accounting from Gujrat University and a B.B.A. in Management and an MBA from Walsh College of Accountancy and Business Administration, where he was elected as a member of Delta Mu Delta, the International Honor Society in Business Administration in recognition of high scholastic attainment. Moiz enjoys spending time with his wife, Tasneem, son, Taha, and family. He also loves playing tennis and rebuilding computers. His expertise in the areas of banking, mortgage and taxation helps to provide our clients with distinct portfolio advice as well as overall financial direction and growth.